For my
friends and foes, I have a disclaimer about this set of postings. I am squarely
in the middle politically, religiously, and socially. I have no axes to grind.
However, I do heartily believe in the truth or my version of it based on
research for as objective a point of view as is possible. The facts are the facts
in this work you are about to read, but the opinions are mine. In short, I
believe the Able-archer-83 saga was a harbinger of things to come, and we
ignore the lesson as it may apply to the current escalation of belligerence
occurring between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran at our
peril. I pray for the leaders involved that no one inadvertently pulls the
atomic trigger.
Let us examine the questions and dilemmas posed by the
standoff between Iran and its mercurial Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Khamenei, and
the United States and its populist and attention seeking president. Since the
1979 revolution in Iran which deposed the Shah, the country has been ruled by a
theocracy headed by a “Supreme Leader”—the autocratic controller of all aspects
of Iran life, governmental, religious, military, social, justice, and economic.
Khamenei has steadily eroded all rights to free speech, having a different
religion, posting adverse comments about his regime and has pursued two
principles of strategy: eliminating outside influences from contaminating his
region—like democracy, libertarianism, Sunni Islam, western concepts of
capitalism and judicial fairness (as opposed to God’s will, as dictated by
Shi’ite cleric lawyers and judges). The other strategic working principle is to
pursue an ever-increasing diplomatic interchange and interdependence with
developing, non-aligned, and needy counties. It is an understatement of the
first order to say that he cannot be influenced by Western reason, threats, or
sanctions.
The abuses keep coming, in Khamenei’s mind. In April
2019 the U.S. threatened to sanction countries continuing to buy oil from Iran
after an initial six-month waiver announced in November expired. According to
the BBC, U.S. sanctions against Iran “have led to a sharp downturn in Iran’s
economy, pushing the value of its currency to record lows, quadrupling its
annual inflation rate, driving away foreign investors, and triggering
protests.” (Wikipedia). The government of Iran has long recognized Jerusalem as
the capital of the State of Palestine, but the American government does not
recognize a “State” of Palestine, and it does recognize Jerusalem as the
capital of Israel.
Khamenei and his minions deeply believe that western
interests have always abused Iranians and other Muslims. He believes that the
United States propped up the evil, rapacious, and corrupt Shah; and that given
a chance, the “Great Satan” would depose his government and put in another
puppet corrupt democrat who know-tows to the Americans. The sanctions placed on
Iran by its enemies in the west come from the devil himself; so, any form of
retaliation is sanctioned by God. God [in this case, Allah] is on Khamenei’s
side and will not let him fail or the west to prevail. Hence, no sacrifice or
risk is too much.
It is not all bravado or inflated bluster about Iran’s
military capabilities: The government of Iran has a paramilitary, volunteer
militia force within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, called the Basij,
which includes about 90,000 full-time, active-duty, uniformed members. As many
as eleven million men and women are members of the Basij who could potentially
be called up for service. The Revolutionary Guards total 545,000 active
troops. Iran has an additional 350,000
strong Reserve Force. The total of Iran’s trained military force is upwards of
900,000. In an emergent or urgent situation, Iran could probably call up a
million trained personnel which would enable the country to have among the
largest troop mobilizations in the world—including the U.S. Would the U.S. win
in an all-out conflict? Almost certainly, but consider the cost, as the
president of the United States is doing at present.
The American president has made much of the importance
of winning—especially against a totalitarian, terrorism exporting, and
anti-American enemy—which accrues to his “Making America Great Again”—the
overriding political purpose. It looks to the many of the nonaligned in the
U.S. that we are approaching the scenario of the unstoppable force running into
the immovable object. It is a serious question about when, not if, another Able
Archer-83 incident propels us to or over the cliff.
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