For my
friends and foes, I have a disclaimer about this set of postings. I am squarely
in the middle politically, religiously, and socially. I have no axes to grind.
However, I do heartily believe in the truth or my version of it based on
research for as objective a point of view as is possible. The facts are the facts
in this work you are about to read, but the opinions are mine. In short, I
believe the Able-archer-83 saga was a harbinger of things to come, and we
ignore the lesson as it may apply to the current escalation of belligerence
occurring between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran at our
peril. I pray for the leaders involved that no one inadvertently pulls the
atomic trigger. The Able Archer-83 exercise [culmination of Exercise
Autumn Forge] was just that, an exercise. The hypothesis underlying the large
military exercises was fictional, albeit something like well written historical
fiction; some realities of the Cold War antagonisms were reflected in the
scenario. The massive exercise involved 40,000 U.S. and NATO troops moving
across western Europe, coordinated by encrypted communications systems. The
planning included a scenario with the hypothetical opponent [Orange—fairly
obviously the Warsaw Pact countries] opening hostilities in all regions of ACE
[Allied Command Europe] on November 4, 1983, including numerous UK air bases.
The defenders were the Blue [NATO], who declared a general alert but did not
return hostilities at first. Two days later, Orange initiated the use of
chemical weapons and by the end of that day had used such weapons throughout
ACE. All of these “events” were simply part of the written scenario. There had
been three days of fighting and a deteriorating situation prior to the start of
the exercise proper. This was desired because—as previously stated—the purpose
of the exercise was to test procedures for transitioning from conventional to
nuclear operations.
In the exercise, as a result of Orange advance, its
persistent use of chemical weapons, and its clear intentions to commit second
echelon forces rapidly, SACEUR [NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe]
requested political guidance on the use of nuclear weapons.
The Soviet interpretation of the exercise could not
have been further afield from the intention of the framers of Able Archer-83.
Moscow Center sent a nearly frantic telegram to the London Center which was
seen by the British spy, Oleg Gordievsky, and shown to MI-6:
In view of the fact that the measures involved in State
Orange [a nuclear attack within 36 hours] have to be carried out with the
utmost secrecy (under the guise of maneuvers, training etc) in the shortest
possible time, without disclosing the content of operational plans, it is
highly probable that the battle alarm system may be used to prepare a surprise
RYaN [nuclear attack] in peacetime
On February 17, KGB Permanent Operational Assignment
assigned its agents to monitor several possible indicators of a nuclear attack
throughout the western world. These included any actions suggesting that there
was a group associated with preparing and implementing decisions about RYaN—the
KGB code name for a feared Western nuclear missile attack. They began a
feverish surveillance and monitoring program of U.S. operating services,
installations, and communications staffs. The 1983 NATO exercise introduced several
new elements not seen in previous years, including a new, unique format of
coded communication, radio silences, and the participation of heads of
government.
This increase in realism, combined with deteriorating
relations between the United States and the Soviet Union and the anticipated
arrival of Pershing II nuclear missiles in Europe, led some members of the
Soviet Politburo and military to believe that Able Archer 83 was a ruse of war,
obscuring preparations for a genuine nuclear first strike by NATO and the U.S.
When no RYaN occurred, and the Able Archer-83 exercise
came to its planned peaceful end, the Soviets heaved a sigh of genuine relief,
and no one pulled the trigger. There must have been a good many officials on
both sides who aged years during that fateful month. High schools in the United
States often gloss over the angsts of the Cold War by describing it as a
“stable balance of power” between the antagonistic east and west. The Able
Archer exercise and the Soviet reaction to it was, in fact, an extremely
dangerous period when the world was staring at the brink of a nuclear
catastrophe. Most of the citizens of the world never knew a thing about it.
Much the same scenario is possible in the confrontation
between the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran in the spring and
summer of 2019. How heavy is the finger on the trigger? How stable and
responsible are the leaders of the opposing nations and their military leaders?
Neurosurgeon turned Author who writes with Gripping Realism
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